The Four Hundred

What goes around comes around. Be careful who you step on while on the way to the top. Don't burn any bridges. Some of us wisely live by such mantras; others pay no nevermind. But there always comes a day when the accounts are balanced, when things are reckoned. The word on the street is that Java's time may have come and gone, and this may have as much to do with how Java's stewards have handled Java's marketing as with how they have created new technologies.

My peeps tell me that the momentum of Microsoft's C# language and .NET development environment are going to swallow Java and Java 2 Enterprise Edition within the next five years. Interestingly enough, the history of IBM's RPG language may offer some clues as to what may—or may not—happen with Java now that .NET and C# are on the scene, building momentum.

This must be a bit of a downer for Java enthusiasts. Not long ago, Java was going to do everything, from running our kitchen appliances to replacing our business applications, which includes our beloved RPG. Now, based on the capabilities of C# and .NET, Microsoft's marketing strategy, and how the public reacts to said marketing strategy, Java's time in the sun (pun intended) may be short lived.

Let's first discuss in more detail what's potentially going to bring Java down. C# is a new language developed by Microsoft that is based on C++ and Java. It claims to have removed the bad stuff about C++ such as pointer and memory problems and kept all the good stuff from Java such as its component and object-oriented based structure as well as its portability capabilities. C# is also close enough to C++ and Java that programmers who already possess either skill will have a short learning curve. Now, all of that is fine and dandy, but if the consumer doesn't buy into it, it will never stick, right? Remember Betamax videotapes? That's where Microsoft's marketing plans come in. Bill Gates is going to spend a whole lot of money to make sure that the C# word gets out. Not only that, but his message, which will be made loudly and clearly, will include in it the "replace Java" slant. Some folks, confused as to where Java came from in the first place, will go as far as to think that Microsoft is no longer supporting its Java platform. That last statement leads to the final blow to Java, and that is how the public will react to Microsoft's barrage of dollars behind the C# message. The name Pied Piper comes to mind. Need I say more?

So what can Java do to survive? Well there is banter going around that Sun Microsystems has to open up and certify some of the open source projects like Jakarta and Jboss. That might help to organize the Java development community and allow it to fight the C# empire headed its way, but where's the marketing power going to come from? The Java community jumping up and down telling everyone how wonderful Java is may not be enough to save it. So with no clear-cut solution, what can Java do?

This is where the experience of the RPG community comes into play. RPG has been in this place before. Many times. In the early 1980s, the school I attended stopped teaching RPG because the powers that be thought that COBOL would completely take over as the business language of choice. Then IBM stepped in with the System/38 and new improvements to the RPG language, and RPG not only survived, it made a resurgence. But that wasn't good enough. Talk of the eventual death of RPG erupted again in the mid-1980s. This time it was CASE technology, client/server, and Visual Basic that were going to do RPG in. IBM again came to RPG's rescue with some much-needed improvements to help satisfy the business needs of the day. The 1990s was a great time to be an RPG programmer, and it looked as though as it was finally cemented as the business language of choice.

But then came Java. And it didn't enter the IT world quietly. In fact, it generated renewed discussion about RPG's demise. And that discussion was strong. RPG programmers panicked more than I had seen them do in the past. Was this going to finally be the end for RPG? The whole world seemed to be on the Java bandwagon, and we RPG programmers were seen as dinosaurs who didn't know the meteor was coming. But then IBM came to RPG's rescue once again and really improved the language. IBM didn't fight Java; it embraced it. At the same time, Java's weaknesses as a business language were discovered and its threat to RPG diminished. In fact, IBM is seeing to it that RPG and Java work more closely together. The two languages have become allies and are, together, creating awesome enterprise e-business solutions.

The question now is if RPG can come full circle and go from being Java's potential prey to actually helping to ensure Java's existence. A possible solution is for Sun and IBM to unify in their attempts to make the Java language stronger. Imagine Java having IBM and Sun by its side as it entered the ring against C#. Not bad. But that may be as difficult as getting Mike Tyson and Lenox Lewis to set aside their differences and step into the ring against a common opponent—and that ain't going to happen. If RPG were a person talking about history and experience, it would tell Java to forget Sun and ask IBM for help. IBM has already embraced Java, and is making it so that it runs nicely on the iSeries. RPG is also a stronger language than ever before, and now has the capacity to work directly with Java. There are still some improvements needed, OS/400 threading capabilities for starters, but RPG could really help to increase Java's presence in the all-important business application environment, which may just be the advantage it needs to take on C#.

So Java should swallow its pride and hope that RPG and IBM don't let momentum fueled by Microsoft money set its course. Java was not so nice when it was rising to the top, and now it might just depend on the language and company it once ridiculed as has-beens for the help it needs to stay alive in the market. The fact that RPG has been a resilient language, with the support of IBM, shows that Java can be saved as well. Maybe IBM should be the official marketing muscle behind Java instead of Sun. IBM can rally as many Java troops as Sun and can help it cut a path through .NET to its own future. But IBM and Sun have to act quickly, before Microsoft starts really rolling. Microsoft was never gunning for RPG like it is gunning for Java.