The Four Hundred

I've been trying for months to pin down what IBM is going to do with the iSeries in 2003, and have been getting mixed signals. According to some sources, IBM has no plans to announce new hardware or software in 2003. Others say there will be new hardware but no new software. While at COMMON last week, I got a very clear signal from high-level IBM sources who said that Big Blue will indeed roll out new iSeries products next year.

Laying this issue to rest is an important thing for OS/400 customers, channel partners, and IBM. Customers get nervous when new machines do not become available, because they don't want the iSeries platform to be perceived as falling behind--which makes it difficult to endorse the platform against its many detractors, who want to push Windows, Linux, or Unix platforms. They also don't want the iSeries to actually fall behind when it comes to technology, since modern applications require modern electronic gadgetry, like large L2 caches, L3 cache, fast memory, I/O buses, and so forth. Perhaps most significant, new processor announcements always mean an improvement in price/performance and often mean absolute price cuts. (In the past couple of years, IBM has been relying on its delivery of faster AS/400 and iSeries servers to boost the bang for the buck of new machines, but prices have not come down as fast as they did in the 1990s for the AS/400 and as they continue to do on Wintel, Lintel, and Unix platforms.)

IBM's exact plans for the iSeries are still secret, but John Reed--who is the director of iSeries product marketing and management, and is absolutely in the know because iSeries product rollouts are his responsibility--told me at COMMON that IBM would be making iSeries hardware and OS/400 software announcements in 2003. As you might expect, Reed was not allowed to elaborate much about the future iSeries announcements, but he did say that IBM is considering a change of tactics in the way that it supports OS/400. He also said that IBM has not yet officially named the next OS/400 release and that the company is mulling different branding for it. I asked if i/OS was a possibility--which would mimic the name change of the mainframe MVS-OS/390 and VM operating systems to z/OS and z/VM last year--and Reed said it was not, because someone else owned the trademark. He also said that it would not be called OS/400 V5R3. If you have any bright ideas on what IBM might call the future OS/400, send me an e-mail at tpm@itjungle.com. I'll pass your suggestions to the iSeries marketing organization in Somers, New York.

While IBM will be rolling out a new OS/400 release next year, the company intends to extend its support for OS/400 releases to help make it easier for customers. Reed said that, in the typical scenario, IBM puts out a new release, customers wait a few months to get it, then they test it for a few months, bring in their applications and test those, and before you know it nine months have gone by. That leaves only 15 months of using that OS/400 release in production, since IBM only supports an OS/400 release for two years. (IBM did extend support for OS/400 V4R5 late last year to help customers catch their breath.) While IBM has made no definite plans, Reed said that IBM will lengthen the support it is offering for OS/400 V5R1 and will similarly stretch out support for OS/400 V5R2 and future releases and versions. It would be reasonable to guess that IBM will move from two years to three years of support.

On the Green Streak front, Reed said that the promotion has got a lot of leads in the pipeline in the Americas region, and it is my guess that most of this activity is in North America, since many of the economies in South America are not so hot right now. He said that a lot of Green Streak deals were closing in the third quarter, particularly at the end of September, when some of the discounts that IBM is giving on software and services as part of the Green Streak deal will expire. Reed said that the timing of the Green Streak deal, which came out at the end of July, just as Europeans typically go on a month-long vacation, has hindered its uptake in Europe. So have the weakened economies in many European countries. However, people still need to buy new iSeries iron, and they like big discounts, so the deal is now starting to gain traction in Europe, too. In the Asia/Pacific region, IBM has enhanced the Green Streak deal with Integrated xSeries Servers, which get bundled into the configuration and discounted; this is working to IBM's advantage because companies in Japan are top-down thinkers (generalizing a lot, mind you) and like to have everything as integrated as possible. Midrange shops in Japan will trust Windows a lot more when OS/400 is babysitting it, as the hybrid Integrated xSeries Server and Integrated xSeries Adapter for external Wintel servers does.

One last thing. Reed said that IBM is aware that the P30 software tier in the Model 820 Green Streak configuration is a problem, particularly for customers whose machines are in the P10 or P20 tier. The cost of new iSeries hardware can be a hindrance, to be sure, but the pain of jumping one or two software tiers with third-party applications often kills potential deals. It is just too expensive to make that jump, unless independent software vendors catch the Green Streak wave and cut their customers some slack. Such a suggestion is ludicrous from the point of view of the software houses, which like nothing better than to book that easy upgrade money. But then again, if customers don't upgrade, they don't get squat. ISVs, it is up to you to be proactive. If you give a little, you will get a lot more in the long run--a lot more than you are going to get if customers just sit tight, thinking about moving to Windows or Linux. Get with it, and work with IBM to offer discounts to these customers to help them get current with your applications.