Rolling The Die In 2026: IBM i Predictions, Take Two
February 2, 2026 Alex Woodie
A traditional Chinese curse states “May you live in interesting times.” That curse may apply to IBM i shops in 2026, which opens with equal parts uncertainty and anticipation. Artificial intelligence looms large, not only over information technology, but life as we know it. Add in the other variables impacting the midrange in the second year of the second quarter of the 21st century Anno Domini, and what you get is…well, interesting.
We start our second and final compilation of 2026 predictions with Bargav Balakrishnan, IBM’s vice president of product management for infrastructure. Balakrishnan took over the post from Steve Sibley in early 2025, and he’s understandably optimistic on what 2026 will bring to the IBM i community. Balakrishnan tells us:
“Clients today aren’t just modernizing their infrastructure and applications. They’re positioning themselves to take advantage of new capabilities as technology evolves. And the data backs it up: 70 percent of IBM i users plan to upgrade hardware or software this year, and 95 percent continue to see greater ROI on IBM i than on other platforms.
Looking ahead, we are investing in three critical areas that will define the next era of IBM Power and IBM i. First, autonomous operations. We delivered zero planned downtime with Power11, and we’re building toward agentic AI ops capabilities that will fundamentally change how these systems manage themselves. Second, cyber resilience. Solutions like Cyber Vault for IBM i will keep our clients ahead of evolving threats. And third, application modernization. New AI-based development tools will unlock productivity and allow clients to evolve their custom applications faster than ever.
Add to that our relentless focus on platform integration, high-value capabilities like PowerHA and PowerSC, and the fact that Power11 offers up to 2.3X better core performance compared to Power9, and the picture is clear: IBM i clients will continue to see industry-leading ROI. This platform isn’t standing still. It’s accelerating into the future.”
When it comes to reading the tea leaves for IBM i jobs, nobody does it quite like Bob Langieri. The president of IBM i job placement firm Excel Technical offers these insights to IT Jungle readers:
“The major trend for early 2026 is No Hire – No Fire. While the economy is relatively strong and consumer spending is up (showing confidence in the future), many companies are holding off rebalancing their workforce. AI is coming on strong and will take the stage for company spending. Companies not taking advantage of AI to improve all aspects of their companies, will be left in the dust. While AI is not new especially for companies like IBM, current AI capabilities have started a new Industrial Revolution. So how does this play for the world of IBM i and RPG? I can only guess that AI will have a major role in modernizing applications in RPG based shops.
Jobs for RPG developers continue to shrink to numbers that make me count twice to make sure I am reading it correctly. Could it be that the code was written so well that it doesn’t need updating? Maybe so. But another reason is that there are other tools and languages that are being used to take on some of the workloads of RPG based applications. When companies add someone to their headcount, it may not be on the IBM i, RPG side. The TIOBE Index ranks RPG as 49th of the popular programming languages, where it was once ranked in the 20s, but it still powers much on the global economy as well as small and medium-sized businesses of the world.
But if you look at demand for developers, C# and Java jobs in the U.S. number in the range of 4,000 openings at any given time, while RPG jobs are harder to find with averages running from 10 to 30 openings at any given time. RPG still powers the backend of roughly 25 percent to 30 percent of U.S.-based manufacturing and distribution, and that is huge. Keep in mind that the average IBM i shop has an average of three programmers. With very few openings, turnover is mostly through retirement. Searching for a new position as an RPG developer might require relocating or a remote position in order to stay employed. After COVID, when more jobs went remote, there is still a strong willingness to allow RPG developers to work remote, hybrid, as well as part-time contracting.
While there may not be a large number of job openings for RPG developers, there is also a critical shortage of experienced developers in the RPG arena. During the last 10 to 15 years, we have seen about 30 percent of senior RPG developers retire. I find the majority of RPG developers are between 60 and 70 years old. Students pursuing degrees or technical school training are not being trained in RPG and IBM i, further exasperating the supply of RPG experience. The very few that are trained in RPG, are also being trained in Python, C# and JavaScript, etc. They will be the future of the IBM i community and will be able to command exceptional salaries.
Salaries vary greatly between open-source developers and RPG developers. A senior .NET/C# developer salary can run from $130K to $185K, while a senior RPG developer salary can run from $120K to $135K. These are for full-time employees and independent contractors may make more. These are also for major metropolitan areas.
Decisions and indecisions. Employers think that when they have an opening, that they can interview five to 10 candidates and find exactly what they want. Unfortunately, the supply is almost non-existent. You might only find one to three possible candidates. And the employers have high expectations. They want the person to have both legacy skills along with new skills like Python or some Java, or front-end skills. They want someone who isn’t going to retire in five years. They can’t decide if the person will fit in even if they have the skills.
I had a client have the whole IT staff, even help desk and network people involved in a group interview, only to eliminate every candidate because someone in that room was not sure the personality was a good fit. I have actually had a couple of clients put a hold on hiring after they interviewed all the available candidates. Today, you might only get to interview one to three candidates for an on-site position. Failure to maintain adequate staff could become a reason to outsource IT Services or leave the platform. Companies need to always have an intern program to bring up the next RPG programmer or IBM support staff. Look from within or recruit from your local community college and you will be rewarded with a pipeline of dedicated IBM i staff.
Where do I see growth for IBM i/RPG talent? It is in part-time contract programming. When you need a specific talent to support a particular project or a critical staff shortage, I find companies more willing to bring on a part-time contractor. Sometimes for 20 to 25 hours a week, sometimes for just five to 10 hours a week. And yes, these are all remote. We are no longer in the search and recruitment business for full-time hires, but more aptly in the staff augmentation as needed business. I believe this will be the future for many shops that can’t find the right full-time hires and the companies that can supply services as needed will be at the leading edge of technical skills and talent resources.
While I believe the IBM i will continue to be the best business application platform in the world, there is a critical shortage of talent that could be hurting or hindering its dominance. To have a successful career in the IBM i world, Developers need to expand their knowledge of more open source tools. To do this, look to community colleges, on-line resources, self-study, user group seminars. You can no longer live by RPG alone. Those who can bridge modern RPG and open technologies will earn substantially more. My advice to employers is embrace the idea of interns and don’t hesitate to hire someone in their 60s willing to share their experience as well as learn a few new tricks.”
Heidi Schmidt, the CEO and managing director of PKS Software, delivered one of the more memorable predictions for 2025, namely that IBM would rename the platform. Alas, that didn’t come to pass, but it hasn’t slowed the IBM Champion down. Here are Schmidt’s 2026 predictions:
“IBM i in 2026: From Legacy Perception to Strategic Leverage: 2026 will be a pivotal year for the IBM i community. Not because the technology suddenly changed – but because the narrative around it finally will. For too long, IBM i has suffered from the legacy label – despite being a high-performing, cloud-ready, API-capable platform. Now, a growing number of CIOs are turning that around: seeing their IBM i systems not as technical debt, but as a strategic asset – and using them as a launchpad for real transformation. What’s driving this shift?
1: AI Meets IBM i–Not as Hype, But as a Helper: We’ll see more pragmatic use of AI in IBM i shops: from refactoring support and semantic code analysis to smarter SQL optimization and test automation. It’s not about ChatGPT building your business logic – it’s about AI making your RPG developer twice as effective.
2: API-First Thinking Becomes the Norm: IBM i logic will increasingly be exposed via modern APIs – not as a migration path, but as a modernization strategy. 2026 will be the year where more RPG logic talks REST than DDS.
3: Modernization Is No Longer a Tool Decision – It’s a Governance Question: Successful IBM i modernization isn’t about the best UI framework or deployment tool. It’s about clear goals, architecture guidelines, ownership models, and cross-functional decision structures. In short: modernization becomes a leadership discipline.
4: The Generation Shift Gets Real: We will witness the real beginning of a generational handover in the IBM i world–not just technically, but culturally. New leaders emerge, fresh voices get louder, and the community begins to speak in a language that resonates with a new generation. Mentorship will matter more than modules.
5: IBM i Gets a New Narrative – Maybe Even a New Name: It might finally be time for IBM to rebrand the platform altogether. Call it ‘SecureCore,’ ‘FusionEdge,’ or something entirely new – but give it the modern positioning it deserves. We’ve always said: IBM i doesn’t need to change to be relevant. But maybe the perception does.”
Closing thought: In 2026, IBM i will stop asking to be taken seriously – and start showing what serious enterprise platforms look like in action.”
When Bob Losey, the president of Source Data, looks into his crystal ball, this is what he sees:
“While predicting the future with certainty is impossible, IBM’s long-established patterns provide useful insight into what IBM i users can expect. Based on those patterns, here are the most likely trends for 2026:
1: Continued Price Increases: IBM began 2026 with a price increase effective January 1, 2026. In 2025, IBM implemented four separate price increases, roughly one at the beginning of each fiscal quarter.
This pattern is likely to continue throughout 2026.
2: Power11 P05 Server Tier Announcement: IBM announced Power11 on July 8, 2025, but the P05 server tier was notably absent. This suggests IBM is prioritizing higher-tier Power10 and Power11 systems first.
The Power11 P05 tier will likely be introduced in the first or second fiscal quarter.
3: Power11 Performance Benefits Favor Large Enterprises: Power11 performance improvements will primarily benefit large IBM i customers. Through PowerVM virtualization, these organizations can improve price/performance ratios and reduce per-user costs. Most large IBM i users rely on proprietary applications refined over decades (10 to 40 years). Combined with IBM i’s exceptional reliability (often cited as 99.9999% uptime) and strong support for AIX and Linux, Power11 reinforces long-term stability and continuity for these environments.
4: Growing Challenges for SMBs: SMBs face increasing challenges due to higher Power server costs, especially when combined with software subscription pricing. Many SMBs also find modern Power servers significantly over-provisioned. With approximately 30,000 CPW per Power11 core, most SMBs cannot fully utilize available capacity. In reality, an estimated 80 percent of SMBs operate comfortably between 500 CPW to 5,000 CPW, far below the performance of a single Power11 core. As a result, many SMBs delay hardware upgrades, move to hosted IBM i solutions, or consider alternatives to the IBM i platform.
5: Continued Growth of IBM i Cloud Hosting for SMBs: IBM i cloud hosting is expected to grow steadily in 2026, particularly among SMBs. Organizations already familiar with virtualization on other platforms recognize its ability to reduce total cost per user. Similarly, IBM i hosting often costs significantly less than owning and maintaining on-premise hardware. These cost advantages increasingly favor hosting, making it an attractive and practical option for SMBs.”
We’ll close the 2026 IBM i predictions with an honorary prediction from noted scientist and time-traveler, Dr. Emmett Brown, who graced the silver screen in the Back to the Future trilogy. Brown said: “The future is what you make it.” Truer words were never spoken by a fictional character.
